A benchmark is a sensor
The simple mental picture A simple mental picture we have for an AI capability benchmark is to think of it as a sensor with a certain sensitivity within a certain range of capabilities. The sensitivity of a benchmark, i.e. it's ability to distinguish the capability of different models, is given by a curve like this: The curve starts high (low sensitivity, high uncertainty), since for models with low capability all the tasks in the benchmark are too hard, and the benchmark can't distinguish between low and very low capability. Similarly all the tasks are too easy for a very capable model, and…
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